Well here we go. I have been hinting, ranting and whining about how web entities are being sold for alarming amounts of cash. I have also ranted at SEO providers for the Rock Star and Video Game convention mentality. The answer I surmised to putting a little perspective back in both was a little magic bullet called an ‘economic downturn’ or better yet, a recession maybe.

Low and behold the fun begins. Today we have the Financial Times reporting on some 3rd quarter targets that won’t be getting met a Yahoo and Advertising Age is reporting on eMarketer is Lowering Online Ad-Growth Forecast. Some 10 000+ Automotive jobs a few weeks back was a good start.

It's not that I have a desire for leaner times, it more of looking for an adjustment in the cycle to get some perspective back. Some of us went through this 6 years ago...

So here's what I bumped into today. A starting point, a crack, a fissure.

Quotable;

“Search advertising, which continued to represent 40 per cent of all online advertising in the first half of the year, is heavily dependent on small businesses, while large companies tend to focus their spending on display.”

“If small companies cut back on advertising spending faster in a downturn, that could leave the search business facing a bigger downturn”

“That's the reason e-commerce tracking firm eMarketer has lowered its ad-spending forecast this year from $16.7 billion to $15.9 billion. It's also predicting that ad growth this year will slow to 26.8%, down from previous growth rates of more 30% in past years.”

Now TOTAL spending may be up, but that is mostly due to more investment into the internet. The MEAN spending is weak.

Many new internet ‘businesses’ are built on a shoe string It won’t take much of an economy twitter to weaken confidence and tighten up the wallets. The first shoe is off. Let’s see if the other one falls. The over valuation of many Social Networking sites is in place, we merely need a few Non-Internet economic factors to fall and we could be getting somewhere.

It’s time for a Reality Check

Financial Times Article; http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f55f202e-4cbf-11db-b03c-0000779e2340.html 

Advertising Age Article; http://adage.com/digital/article?article_id=112100

Dot Bomb Part Duh; http://www.huomah.com/business-development/internet-business/dot-bomb-part-duh.html

Marketing Reality Check; http://www.thebusinessdevelopers.com/articles/web-marketing/marketing-reality-check.html

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Comments (3)

• |66.128.161.xxx |2006-09-26 16:33:10 Shawn
  So, do you think that people with the most 'staying power' are able to get higher rankings in the serps?
  
  Case in point - The company I work for is a manufacturer/distributor/retailer. Got all the bases covered. I'm getting beat in the serps for some key terms by people that just 'work from home drop-shippers'. My company has the budget to spend on on-line advertising, and is of course going to do so.
  
  I felt this a while back, and thats what I've been telling my boss this whole time, since he seems to think I should be able to jump to #1 in less than a month for a competative term. :(
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• |67.70.59.xxx |2006-10-15 04:29:34 theGypsy  - the war of attrition
  Hey Shawn, how’s it going?
  
  I have always believed in the ‘staying power theory’. Even before I got into the web. My first company made it through the late 80’s early 90’s and that recession trimmed a few competitors
  
  Online we went through the late 90’s Dot Com Boom and and Bust which also laid waste to the competition. In pure SEO terms, an older site can have an advantage on a newer one.
  
  The war of attrition is an effective tool.
  
  As far as getting a grip on which way to go with Search Marketing try these on for size; Organic SEO v PPC
  
  
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• |66.128.161.xxx |2006-09-27 09:01:25 Shawn
  Great article. Ya know, about a week after I did some research for the SEO of our companies website, those points in your article perfectly explain that feeling that I had in my gut the whole time.
  
  But, would I listen? Heck no. As always, 'Well, these other guys are suppose to know what they're talking about, so I'll just go with them'..... arg. Still feeling the pain of that bad purchase.
  
  So now i'm back to my gut instincts. Brand awareness, promotions, advertising, creating a buzz, and lots of content writing. And so far, it's starting to pay off. I've doubled my traffic in the past couple months, but still only on the second page of the search.
  
  Much more work to do, but hopefully I'll have the situation fixed before 2007.
  
  By the way, do you run the Big Daddy forums, or is that someone else? And who are you on WW? You mentioned you seen me there. :)
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